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Editor”s Note: This was originally written on June 6, 2009.
Our Lord's disciples asked Him, “What sign will be given at thy coming?” He answered not a reprimand, but told them “Take care.” (Matt. XXIV- 3-4; “You must be on the watch . . You must stand ready.” (Matt. XXIV- 41,44. Nineteen centuries later, at Fatima, His Mother said, “When you see a light.” Can we conclude else than that we are expected to read the “signs of the times”, and act wisely. Though Christians have been doing just that for 2000 years, often misunderstanding what they see, we are always told to keep watch. It is not a form of hysteria to interpret what we see happening around us, neither human events nor physical phenomena. We are wise to do so. “Expect any day what surely will happen some day” (Cardinal J.H. Newman). Certain things are manifest today and can no longer be shrugged off by anyone with a sincere concern about their immediate descendants.
Accompanied by an increasing sense of dismay among those who look objectively and quite scientifically at the published population forecasts, even those of the United Nations which has an undeniable anti-natalist bias, our world is soon to begin an almost unimaginable descent in population that will either mean a reversion to distant historic times or even the near extinction of the human race. This is no longer in debate, and it is documented extensively in “Population Control”, Steven Mosher, Transaction Publishers, 2008. That book documents the present situation in world population and is worthy of intense attention. Mosher is President of the Population Research Institute.
Doomsday scenarios are not unknown to modern populations: comets striking the Earth that wipe out the Sun's rays; earthquakes on the New Madras Fault killing untold millions; droughts that are cyclical and may destroy our food supply; pollution of our oceans with PCBs will cause world-wide cancer; the melting of the Polar ice cap will flood whole countries; the Ozone shield , etc., etc. - all of which are merely in the realm of possibility at some time in the future. Population is quite different. We can actually count heads, know life-spans, know fertility rates, and know child- bearing years. We now know with certainty that pent-up billions of old people will die and that the world's population will begin to decline in 2050. Old people alone, having swollen out of all normal proportion because of reduced fertility among the young, will cause the population to drop by many billions. The future will depend on a radical positive change in the overall world fertility rate. Will our grandchildren and great grandchildren bear more than replacement levels, in an environment of great economic distress and a collapse of the presently existing political structures and support systems? A continuing-to-collapse world population to 2 or 3 billion people by the year 2100 is all we can presently expect. Information available through the UNFPA and independent sources confirm this forecast.
History tells us that population collapse has occurred from time to time. The Greeks alone have had this phenomenon at least twice. People stopped having babies in a relatively affluent society. They were replaced over time by other fertile people from surrounding areas. Today the situation is actually taking place globally and simultaneously. Anti-natalist influences in worldwide societies have provided several social, cultural, and economic forces which have radically changed things: Divorce, facilitated by the absence of children, made possible by contraception and abortion, late marriages if any at all, further influenced by affluence and a pervasive culture of “individualism”, all exacerbated by the influence of a growing life-expectancy made possible by modern medicine.
To speak openly about these things is to immediately draw down almost universal derision, except perhaps from an element in society which finds impending disaster in everything from Holy Scripture to Aliens from foreign worlds. What is suggested here seems different. It is supported by well-established scientific and mathematical facts. The population plunge beginning around 2005 is irrefutable. The only possible alteration in the final outcome may be caused by the seemingly unlikely increase in the fertility rate of baby girls yet to be born, the very persons so commonly rejected by abortion and infanticide in numerous societies.
Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, recently spoke of 500 million Europeans without any caveats relating to population trends. A decade ago, the President of France spoke about the demise of Europe. Clearly, there is a denial of reality in some elements of society. Demographers know for certain that two out of three Europeans will have disappeared by the end of this Century. Japan and Russia are already in an advanced state of collapse. Russia is losing one to two million citizens a year. Japan is closing schools all over the country for the same reason. China continues its rejection of more than one child, and its society leans heavily to the male, as does the Indian.
The problem facing humanity is so immense, pervasive and profound that despair is easily the winning emotion for those who lack a belief in our Father God. How God will draw good out of the situation is far beyond our imagining, but an end to the present world and a transition into the glorious world to come, the one which He has promised to those who love Him, is not so easily dismissible.
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